The first leg of the UEFA Champions League quarter-final, in which Real Madrid host Bayern Munich, is considered the most frequent fixture in the history of European football. This is the 29th meeting between the two sides.
Real Madrid
The club from the Spanish capital had recorded five consecutive wins in competitive matches prior to Saturday’s 1-2 defeat to Mallorca in La Liga. This result meant that the gap to the league leaders widened to seven points. It was not the ideal warm-up ahead of the club’s 22nd Champions League quarter-final in history, but there is no denying the quality of ‘Los Blancos’ – they have progressed from this stage to the semi-finals on 17 occasions, a tournament record.
Madrid could make history, as after four wins in this season’s knockout stages, another victory would make Álvaro Arbeloa only the third manager in history to win his first five such matches. This is also indicated by their record of five wins in six home European matches this season (one draw).
Kylian Mbappé has scored a goal on average every 56 minutes in this season’s Champions League matches, and six of his last eight goals have come in the first 30 minutes of play.
The club will have to do without Thibaut Courtois and Rodrigo.
Bayern
Bayern are the only team to have reached the Champions League quarter-finals more often than Real Madrid (24 times), but that is no guarantee of success, as no team has been knocked out at this stage more often than the six-time European Cup winners (10 times).
The Bavarians can, however, draw confidence from being in better form than the hosts – on Saturday they came from two goals down to beat Freiburg 3-2, maintaining a nine-point lead at the top of the Bundesliga and extending their unbeaten run in all competitions to 12 matches (10 wins, 2 draws). They are performing just as well away in the Champions League – having lost only one of their last eight such matches (6 wins, 1 draw) – so they can head to the Bernabéu with cautious optimism.
Lennart Karl was Bayern’s hero in the match against Freiburg, scoring the winning goal in stoppage time and now having four goal contributions (2 goals, 2 assists) in the last three matches.
Harry Kane’s participation in the match remains in doubt due to an injury sustained during England’s training camp.
Real Madrid v Bayern Munich: Head-to-head record
Real Madrid have lost just one of their last eight head-to-head matches in normal time (5 wins, 2 draws), and in their last four they have scored exactly two goals each time (2 wins, 2 draws). At home, the team has lost just one of their last eight such matches (6 wins, 1 draw; results after 90 minutes).
In seven of Real Madrid’s last eight Champions League matches, over 2.5 goals were scored.
Bayern have scored an average of 3.2 goals per match in this season’s Champions League.
In eight of Bayern’s last nine away matches in official competitions, both teams have scored.
Real Madrid v Bayern Munich prediction
Real Madrid may have the upper hand in head-to-head encounters, but Bayern’s superior form suggests that a draw or a Bayern win is worth considering as a possible outcome. There are bound to be goals, though.
Over 2.5 goals
